Which Favorites Are Most at Risk in the Round of 32
Not every title contender gets an easy entry into the knockout bracket.
The answer depends almost entirely on how they finish in their group. A team like Spain, if they top their group, likely enters the Round of 32 against a third-place qualifier — which might be a team with five or six points, playing their best football, with nothing to lose. That's not a formality.
The more dangerous scenario is for a contender who finishes second in a competitive group. They could face a group winner from a strong cluster — potentially a team with nine points from a hard group, arriving in the knockout stage with full momentum. History is full of examples where elite sides were exposed by physically fresh, tactically sharp opponents in the Round of 16. The Round of 32 in 2026 creates exactly that pressure one round earlier.
England is one team to watch here. If they finish second in Group L behind a strong opponent, their Round of 32 draw could immediately include a major European side. France, Germany, and Argentina all face similar risks if they don't win their groups cleanly. The first job is the group. The second job is winning the group rather than just qualifying.
- Runners-up face harder Round of 32 opponents than group winners
- Even a 'comfortable' group winner path includes a team playing elimination football
- Fatigue management becomes critical when you add an extra knockout game