Upset Potential
Forget the usual suspects. At 48 teams, the bracket is longer and one bad night ends anyone's campaign. Here are the four sides most likely to make a deep run that nobody saw coming.
A dark horse at a World Cup isn't just a team that squeaks through the group stage. It's a side that can beat one of the five or six genuine title contenders in a one-off knockout game — and then do it again three days later.
The Round of 32 changes the calculus here. Teams now need to win five knockout matches to lift the trophy, not four. That extra fixture matters more for dark horses than for elite squads, because depth is where the gap shows.
Colombia
Best squad balance outside the top six.
Norway
Haaland alone can decide a knockout tie.
Japan
Best defensive transition in Asia, built for knockouts.
Morocco
Proved in 2022 they can hold a lead against anyone.
Finished 3rd in CONMEBOL qualifying. Under Lorenzo, ran a 28-game unbeaten streak across all competitions that ended only at the 2024 Copa América final.
Colombia's CONMEBOL qualifying record was 7 wins, 7 draws, 4 defeats — respectable, not dominant. But that number alone undersells what Lorenzo built. The team he finished the campaign with was constructively different from the one that lost to Bolivia early on. His overall run of 28 unbeaten matches across all competitions through mid-2024 suggests a squad that improved continuously under pressure.
They sit in Group K alongside Portugal, Uzbekistan, and Congo DR. Portugal are beatable — they have conceded in every major tournament knockout since 2018 — and the other two are matches Colombia should control. A Colombia side that exits the group fresh and pressing well is a serious knockout threat.
James Rodríguez turns 35 during the tournament but remains capable of controlling matches from deep. The question is less about his talent and more about whether Lorenzo can manage his minutes effectively across 39 days.
Drawn into Group I alongside France and Senegal. At least one elite side will exit early.
Erling Haaland has scored 55 goals in 49 senior international appearances for Norway. He broke the country's all-time scoring record in October 2024 and then scored 17 international goals across 2025 alone. Those numbers are not a conversion rate — they are a force multiplier that changes how opponents structure their defensive approach from the moment he enters the lineup.
The issue for Norway is that Group I asks them to navigate France and Senegal to qualify comfortably. They will take points in that group — Haaland guarantees that — but arriving at the Round of 32 potentially bruised and with key players on yellow cards is a real risk.
Martin Ødegaard's role is as important as Haaland's. When Ødegaard is running matches from midfield and supplying the right service, Norway look like a top-12 team in world football. When he is anonymous, so are they.
Consistent knockout performers since 2018. Tactically the hardest to break down in Asia.
Japan have reached the Round of 16 in three of the last four World Cups. At Qatar 2022, they beat Germany and Spain in the group stage before losing to Croatia on penalties. That is not luck. That is a system.
Their pressing triggers are among the best in international football. They force errors before the opposition is settled, score early, then defend the lead in compact low blocks. It is not pretty but it is effective — and at a World Cup, effective beats pretty almost every tournament.
The concern is finishing. Japan create chances but do not always convert them, and against the elite they cannot afford to let ties go to extra time or penalties every round.
Africa's first semi-finalist. Their defensive structure is World Cup-tested.
Morocco reached the semi-finals of the 2022 World Cup in Qatar by beating Belgium, Spain, and Portugal in the knockout rounds. None of those wins were flukes. They were built on a suffocating defensive shape, set-piece threat, and a goalkeeper — Yassine Bounou — who is still among the best in the world.
The squad has aged two years and Walid Regragui's system requires intense pressing that is harder to sustain at 34 days into a tournament. But Morocco's ceiling in Group C — which includes Brazil — is still a top-two finish, and a favorable Round of 32 draw gives them a realistic path to the quarters.
They are not going to win the tournament. But they are absolutely capable of ending the campaigns of sides ranked above them.
A genuine dark horse is not just a team that makes the knockout rounds — it is a side that can beat a top-six tournament favorite in a single elimination match. That requires a specific combination: a settled system, at least one match-winning individual, and the squad depth to handle five knockout games in 25 days.
Erling Haaland has scored 55 goals in 49 international appearances for Norway, including 17 in just 9 games during 2025. He broke Norway's all-time international scoring record in 2024. In knockout football, having the most prolific international striker in Europe is a structural advantage no defensive setup can fully neutralize.
Colombia. They are in Group K with Portugal, Uzbekistan, and Congo DR. If they top the group, their Round of 32 and Round of 16 bracket is manageable. They have the squad quality and the tactical structure to win five matches in a row. That path does not exist for most teams in this tier.
Spain and England are favorites, not dark horses. Both sides carry genuine title expectations based on squad depth, recent tournament performance, and tactical maturity. Dark horses are teams that would be considered surprises reaching the final four — Spain and England would not.